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Youth Out-Migration from Pennsylvania

Recently, the Journal of Regional Analysis & Policy published a report titled Youth Out-Migration from Pennsylvania: The Roles of Government Fragmentation vs. the Beaten Path Effect in response to a report titled Back to Prosperity: A Competitive Agenda for Renewing Pennsylvania published by the Brookings Institute in 2003. Georg Grassmuek, Stephan Goetz and Martin Shields co-authored the report which argued that Pennsylvania’s economic renewing difficulty and loss of young residents (age 25-34) is partly due to local government fragmentation.

The Brookings Report argues in favor of the government consolidation, on the observation that Pennsylvania has high rates of youth out-migration, high rates of government fragmentation and low rates of economy growth.

The JRAP article offers an empirical test of the possible causes for youth out-migration, whether the beaten path effect or a competing justification.

The main argument of the article is whether the beaten path effect has more influence on youth out-migration than local government fragmentation. 

Based on the calculated migrants utility and locale-specific amenities, the theoretical framework portion of the article provides the defined equations.

The data section of the article offers the specifics of the equation or the possible reasons for youth out-migration. The possible variables are wage and employment opportunities (measured by employment growth and unemployment rates), natural amenities, the “bright city lights” theory measured by artificial amenities (entertainment, restaurants, bars, etc), educational establishments, health care establishments,  the “Putnam” index accounting for religious and social gathering places, quality of schooling, housing affordability, adjacency variable measuring migration to nearby areas and last but not least government fragmentation.

In the regression results section of the report, the authors found statistically significant evidence that the beaten path effect has an effect on youth-out migration.

The results on employment opportunities as a cause for out-migration found that employment opportunity is more important than the level of earnings.

The “bright city lights” or artificial amenities effect found that entertainment value was important as a reason for migration, but also that youth find health-related establishments important as well.  Also, a deficiency of health care options influences out-migration.

Housing affordability was higher in the counties migrated to. There is an attraction to counties with increased expenditures, which the authors thought may be in anticipation of future children’s needs.

Four variables were created for adjacency factor of migration, and studies found that young adults are moving from rural Pennsylvania to more metro areas. However, there were statistically significant results that young adults do not move far from Pennsylvania.

The theory that youth are migrating due to government fragmentation was proven to be the opposite. Statistically significant evidence found that youth are moving to counties with higher levels of fragmentation than the counties they moved from. Possible explanation included fragmentation providing a larger choice in public goods and service and the benefits of competition between government units.

The study concludes that the Brookings report’s suggestion to consolidate government in Pennsylvania is unnecessary and should be reconsidered.

To read the full report visit http://www.nercrd.psu.edu/Outmigration.pdf.

Written by Jessica Lindenberg